G.W. Gras

Senior Writer for The Bears Brawl and Lead Host of The Bears Brawl Podcast.

We all need an edge against the spread.  We all use different tools and different methods.  Every week, G.W. Gras presents “Beating Vegas” on TheBearsBrawl.Com to offer his insight, that will help you get the edge against the spread.

 

Georgia Bulldogs -22 at Tennessee Volunteers
Over / Under 52.5

The Georgia Bulldogs are tired of finishing off the season as “good, but not good enough.” Head coach, Kirby Smart has been recruiting NFL quality talent to this Bulldogs team, that is only to be rivaled by Clemson and Alabama.

The last time we saw the Bulldogs, they were in a dog-fight (no pun intended) against the Fighting Irish and came away with a 23-17 victory. They are coming off of a bye-week and will go on the road to face Tennessee.

The Volunteers are coming off their bye week as well, and after playing four games this season, they came away with one win, against Chattanooga (yikes). The Volunteers are averaging 4.3 yards a rush and have only managed three rushing touchdowns. Their passing game isn’t awful and quarterback Jarrett Guarantano does what he can. He didn’t look bad against Georgia State, BYU or Chattanooga but when he had to play a “real” defense in the Florida Gators, he threw no touchdowns, two interceptions, and 107 passing yards.

Source: Scott Cunningham/Getty Images North America)

Things will only get tougher for Guarantano who is going up against a Georgia defense that although allow a 60% completion percentage – they really limit the damage done. They showed this in their game against Notre Dame, when quarterback Ian Book completed 61.7% of his passes with two touchdowns, but also had two interceptions and was held to under six yards a pass.

The Volunteers rush defense isn’t terrible, holding opponents to 3.7 yards a carry, but they are going up against one of the best in Deondre Swift of Georgia who is averaging 7.9 yards a carry. After calculating the SMASH average, expect Swift to gain 5.8 yards a carry.

A lot of the Volunteers defensive stats are a bit inflated because of the competition they faced – and STILL lost to. It’s going to be struggle for Tennessee to get anything going offensively and the Bulldogs coming off of a bye are a lot more dangerous than the Volunteers coming off of a bye.

The Pick: Georgia -22

Arkansas State Red Wolves -7 at Georgia State Panthers
Over / Under 67

The Georgia State Panthers started out the season with two victories, but followed that up with two road losses. Coming off their bye week they play host to Arkansas State who holds the most prolific pass attack in the Sun Belt Conference.

The Red Wolves are completing 61% of their passes and have a 14 touchdowns through the air this season. This is prime pickings for this Red Wolves team as Georgia State is allowing a completion percentage of 66% through the air.

Red Wolves QB Logan Bonner is out for the year, but back up Layne Hatcher showed up last weekend, on the road at Troy completing 70% of his passes, for four touchdowns and 440 yards.

Looking at how bad Tennessee is this year, the win Georgia State had over them earlier this season doesn’t look impressive at all.

Georgia State has also been less than stellar at home standing at 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games.

The Pick: Arkansas State Red Wolves

Tulane -3 at Army Black Knights
Over / Under 45.5

The Army Black Knights are coming off their bye-week and playing host to the Tulane Green Wave, and are 3-1 so far on the year.

Army is coming off of an amazing 2018 campaign and so far have picked up wins against lowly Morgan State and UTSA. They also picked up a win against Rice, but barely edged them out 14-7. Army also almost pulled off what would’ve been a huge upset against Michigan.

Now that we’ve seen what Michigan really is though, how “impressive” is that three-point loss now?

Source: Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images North America

Tulane, on the other hand is 3-1 and coming off their bye week as well – but unlike Army, Tulane’s schedule has been tougher. Their one loss was 24-6 at Auburn, and two of their three wins came against decent programs in Houston and Florida International.

This game all comes down to Tulane’s ability to stop the run. More specifically, the ability to stop Army’s triple option attack. Last season, Tulane held Navy to 2.8 yards a carry but still only beat them by one point (29-28).

Army is averaging 4.9 yards a carry and are rushing for 293.5 yards a game meaning they can manage against a Tulane defense allowing 4.2 yards a carry.

Tulane is not a slouch on the ground either, averaging 6 yards a rush and 273 yards a game. Army’s rush defense is a lot better than Tulane’s though holding opponents to 3.1 yards a rush.

Army coming off of a bye at home is a tempting take though, as they are 15-0 in their last fifteen home stands. In Army’s last nine games, the total has gone under six times, while Tulane’s games have gone under in six of their last seven games.

The Pick: The Under at 45.5