G.W. Gras

Senior Writer for The Bears Brawl and Lead Host of The Bears Brawl Podcast.

The Beating Vegas article is an exclusive writing piece for TheBearsBrawl.Com.  It is here where G.W. Gras gives his locks for the College Football weekend, and helps give you the edge to Beating Vegas.

 

San Jose State Spartans +7.5 at Nevada Wolfpack
Over / Under 59.5

This isn’t the sexiest game on the docket but definitely one of the more interesting lines. The Spartans and Wolfpack are both 3-2 so far this season but San Jose sits in second place of the MWC West Division above number five, Nevada.

Nevada is going to start their third string quarterback, Malik Henry. If the name sounds familiar Malik Henry is a fallen Florida State recruit, who ended up on the series “Last Chance U” while he attended Independence Community College.

Henry is basically a kid who let his attitude over ride his talent, threw fits and was generally an unpleasant kid. Nevada is his true “last chance” to be on track to any type of career on the football field and he faces a San Jose Spartans defense that is allowing a 57.6% completion percentage to opposing defenses.

San Jose has a quarterback in Josh Love who is averaging 283 yards a game and completing passes at a rate of 62%. The senior will be throwing against one of the worse pass defenses in Nevada, who allows a completion percentage of 67.3%

Source: Ethan Miller/Getty Images North America

Nevada’s defense is allowing 39.2 points per game and is one of the ten-worst defensive units. Some are still down on San Jose State, because – they’re San Jose State, but the truth is, they are a better all around team than Nevada.

Malik Henry is getting the nod, and although his name brings some fan-fare, he was the third string quarterback on a team with terrible quarterbacks to begin with.

Right now, Nevada is getting the respect just for being the home team. If your “guy” still has San Jose getting points, jump all over it.

The Pick: San Jose +7.5

 

 

 

Toledo Rockets -24.5 at Bowling Green Falcons
Over / Under 65.5

Bowling Green has one of the most pitiful defenses in all of college football. With an opening line like that, it shouldn’t be a mystery where I’ll lean here, but I’ll continue just for the heck of it.

Toledo was one of my favorite teams to watch before the season started. They are on a four game win streak which includes their last two games (victories over BYU and Western Michigan). Toledo has been one of the best recruiting schools in the MAC conference and it shows up in their depth.

The Rockets are led by dual threat quarterback Mitchell Guadagni. In five games this year, Guadagni has thrown for 905 yards at 8.9 yards a clip, and has run for 292 yards with 11 total touchdowns. Running back Bryant Koback is averaging 6.9 yards a carry and he’s lining up against a Bowling Green defensive front that gives up 5.4 yards a rush. After calculating the SMASH average, Koback should still run for over six yards a carry (6.15 to be exact).

Bowling Green’s defensive woes are accompanied by it’s offenses inabilities.

The Falcons are averaging less than 15 points per game and have gotten shut out TWICE by the score of 52-0 (Kansas State and Notre Dame).

Toledo is here to run the MAC. If they are to stumble along the way, there isn’t a possibility that the Falcons are the team to trip them up. At All.

The Pick: Toledo -24.5

Source: Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images North America

UNLV Running Rebels +17 at Vanderbilt Commodores
Over / Under 59

Why are the Commodores favored by 17 in this game?

A few reasons: 1.) They are from the SEC 2.) UNLV lost on National television to a high profile Boise State team 3.) Vandy is at home.

Vanderbilt is giving up the most running yards per attempt in the nation with a number of 6.3 —- this works into UNLV’s one strength (if that’s what you want to call it) as they run the ball for 4.7 yards a rush. According the SMASH average – UNLV should be able to muster 5.5 yards a carry.

Vandy averages under 20 points per game and are pretty much at the bottom of the SEC in total offense.

The over / under of 59 leads me to believe that a back door cover by UNLV or a closer game than most think is on the horizon here.

The Pick: UNLV +17