Louisiana Lafayette Ragin Cajuns -12.5 at Coastal Carolina
Over/Under 57.5

The Ragin’ Cajuns have a top ten rushing offense in college football this year, averaging 6.7 yards a rush. Even against a stout SEC defense like Mississippi State, they still managed 4.3 yards a rush.

Their leading rusher Elijah Mitchell is averaging 6.1 yards a carry with over 700 yards on the season, but this is a back field that has featured at least four tailbacks in 7 of their 8 games this season. And between them, those three backs Ragas, Calais and Smith, averaging just about 8 yards a carry.

Source: Michael Chang/Getty Images North America)

The passing attack does what it needs to in order to get by. They average a little more than 200 yards a game through the air but do so efficiently.

The passing attack of the Cajuns should only be helped out by the Coastal Carolina defense which allows opponents to complete passes at a rate of 70%. But here’s the catch: the Chanticleers don’t allow much after the catch and have allowed only 1404 passing yards this season (an average of 175 yards per game).

The Chanticleers rush defense is holding opponents to 4.3 yards a carry, but even after calculating the SMASH average, they lose out and will be giving the Cajuns an average of five and half yards a rush.

The Chanticleers have beaten up on the bad teams and loss to the good. . and decent teams out there, while the Cajuns only two losses have come against two tough opponents and only by 10 points in each contest.

The Pick: Louisiana Lafayette -12.5

Source: Michael Chang/Getty Images North America

Tennessee Volunteers +4 at Kentucky Wildcats
Over / Under 43.5

This game between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Kentucky Wildcats is less about what you think about the Vols and more about if you think the Wildcats are a worthy opponent.

Say what you want about the Volunteers, losing to Georgia State and BYU to open the season wasn’t a pretty sight. Then they loss to three top 10 ranked teams in Georgia, Florida and Alabama. Life in the SEC is tough – there are literally no days off.

In the last two weeks, Tennessee has picked up wins against South Carolina and UAB and it seems they are doing it on both sides of the ball.

The Wildcats are doing much of what they did last year which is just run the ball as much as you can, and throw the ball – only if you need to. What they aren’t doing as well as last year is play defense. They aren’t a terrible unit, but the key to what made them a surprise team in the NCAA last year was that the defense was easily one of the best in college football. This year team’s have been averaging five yards a carry against them.

Tennessee’s defense is well balanced enough to have the edge against a team as one dimensional as Kentucky – especially when the dimension isn’t as “Benny Snell-ish” as last season.

This is going to be a low scoring affair with one team on a hot streak and the other just kind of walking around aimlessly.

The Pick: Tennessee +4.5

 

LSU Tigers +7 at Alabama Crimson Tide
Over / Under 63

It’d be almost criminal to not make a pick in this game, so here it is.

Statistically, it’s pretty much a mirror image of each other. Alabama has had the edge in this rivalry in recent years, but that’s mainly because LSU has been so damn one dimensional.

Source: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images North America

This year, quarterback Joe Burrow has taken a ridiculous ‘’senior leap” and is not only playing his best football – he is putting himself in the conversation for the Heisman trophy and as an early draft pick in the NFL’s next draft.

Burrow is averaging 350 yards a game with 30 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.

On the other side of the ball is the other Heisman hopeful who has NFL scouts critical of his every pass – Tua Tagovailoa. Tua has continued to put up impressive stats as he did last year.

LSU, along with probably Ohio State, are the only teams that can match speed and power at the positions that give Alabama an edge over most of the College Football landscape.

Source: Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images North America

Nick Saban has a tendency of making these hyped up games against him seem like a boring win for the Crimson Tide but head coach Ed Orgeron of LSU is 6-0 against the spread as n underdog.

Last year LSU lost 21-0 – this year, the squads are more evenly matched up and it could go down to the wire.

The Pick: LSU +7

 

 

South Alabama Cougars +7.5 at Texas State Bobcats
Over / Under 44.5

You probably won’t see a worse rushing defense than the Bobcats this year, averaging 2.8 yards on the ground (actually they’re only the fifth worse) and they don’t make it up with the passing attack either. Through the air Texas State has thrown 13 interceptions and only 8 touchdowns.

South Alabama runs the ball a “little” bit better and pass the ball just as well as the Bobcats.

So where do the advantages lie?

In the line.

The best things that can be said about Texas State is that they won in a shoot out against Georgia State 37-34 and they loss to Wyoming by 9. The best thing that can be said about South Alabama is that at least the line is giving them the half point hook.

The Cougars should be able to keep it close in a contest that nobody in the world is going to watch.

The Pick: South Alabama +7.5